After I correctly called the fact that Lebron would come home. (I did. I wrote it down. I was right.) And put Kevin Love in Cleveland BEFORE Lebron made his announcement. (Wrote it on the same sheet of paper.) And after a crazy season culminating in an improbable run to the finals, I finally get to catch my breath and offer my next bit of future: "I told you so!"
First, (and I cannot state this strongly enough) both Lebron and Kevin Love will be playing for Cleveland next year. For all the people out there who think that Kevin Love will somehow take less money to play for a team that isn't as good..."Please, child, do I look stupid?" Kevin Love is NOT going to take less money (the Cavs can offer him more than anyone else) to play for a team that isn't as good (BTW: anyone remember that Golden State wanted Kevin Love, but they weren't willing to throw Klay Thompson in on the deal and wanted Minnesota to take Dramond Green instead? I think it worked out OK for everyone.)
So, now that we've established that the Big 3 Cavs aren't going anywhere, what are they going to do???
We are going to see a whole lot of matching!
I'm not talking about the game Memory. I'm talking about matching money for restricted free agents. Shumpert, Delly and Tristan are all Restricted free agents which the Cavs will retain by matching dollars. A few of the older guys will be gone (Perkins, Matrix, Haywood). Guys who are less old are still under contract (Mozgov, Anderson, Miller). So basically, that leaves J R Smith. He likes it in Cleveland. It reminds him of home. People are nice to him. The pressure isn't too high. He gets to be the 5th or 6th best player on a really good team. The Cavs will pay him at least 7 million per. Um... He's staying too. Duh!
The big question is whether the Cavs trade Haywood's wonky salary for a meaningful player. This could very easily happen and it would be a great move. I really don't know who they might get, but if they're going to go big into the luxury tax, then they might as well go all the way.
Incidentally, this is the year to do it! Next year is the last year of basketball as we financially know it. After this next season, the salary cap line will go up by over 20 million dollars. Factor in the fact that the players are going to opt out of the collective bargaining agreement after the following year because they got hosed on the last one, and it isn't inconceivable to see the salary cap double from where it is now in just two years!
What does this mean? It means the Cavs should OVERSPEND. The guys they're poised to bet long on are all on the right side of 30. J R Smith is the only one who's even 29. (Yes, Lebron is 30, but that isn't a bet. Lebron is as close to a sure thing as you can get in basketball.) So locking them all into long contracts is actually a really good idea given what's going to happen with the salary cap.
Bottom line: it doesn't guarantee a championship, but it does guarantee that the Cavs will be relevant for many years to come.
Cheers Cleveland! It feels like the summer of 1995 all over again!
